Opinion/Foreign Relations
Ken Timmerman’s Threat Watch, www.kentimmerman.com 12-5-25
| If you thought Putin had been marginalized by the US and Europe because of the Ukraine war, think again. The Europeans have done a lot of huffing and puffing. And President Trump has sent Ukraine powerful offensive missiles. But we haven’t succeeded in blowing Putin’s house down. Far from it. This week, Putin once again defied the International Criminal Court, which has an international arrest warrant against him, by traveling to India for talks with Prime Minister Modi. He was received by Modi with all the pomp and circumstance normally accorded the leader of a great power. The two leaders signed an economic cooperation agreement that expanded Russia’s oil sales to India and included a Russian pledge to buy more Indian goods, all of it in defiance of international sanctions and U.S. tariffs. It wasn’t long ago that President Trump announced he was doubling tariffs on India to 50% until India reduced its purchases of Russia oil. I commented at the time that Trump was trying to force India to chose between Russian oil and exports to the US, and that I suspected the Indians would call his bluff and choose Russia. And that is exactly what Prime Minister Modi did, despite his good personal relations with President Trump. India will also get new shipments of S-400 air defense systems and upgrades to its advanced Cjets. And why not? We were never going to offer them the F-35 because of all the Russia technicians already working with the Indian military. That’s why Trump rescinded the F-35 co-production agreement with Turkey during his first term. He gave Erdogan the choice of buying S-300 air defense systems from Russia or the F-35, and Erdogan chose the S-300. Look, the Russians are really, really good at espionage. But why should we make it ridiculously easy for them to steal our secrets? Putin also signed a deal with the military regime in Sudan to establish a naval base on the Red Sea last week. It will allow the Russians to permanently house 300 personnel and dock up to four warships, probably in Port Sudan. The deal also expands mining concessions (mostly gold) to the Russians, and includes Russian air defense systems, as well. If you thought having the Houthis shooting Iranian-made missiles against Israel, US warships, and commercial shipping in the Red Sea was bad, just wait until the Russians get there. They don’t have to fire a single shot to disrupt US naval operations, intimidate our allies, and gain intelligence on US and allied fleet movements. According to an analysis by the Robert Lansing Institute, a Russian naval base in Sudan will “complicate American force flow in a crisis,” while providing “operational support” for covert arms shipments and Wagner group operations throughout Africa. It also satisfies Russia’s centuries-long quest for access to the warm seas. French president Macron traveled to China this week, ostensibly to get the Chinese to pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Macron is at best a bit-player on the world scene, but he is always good at preening. He really went to Beijing to sell more French goods to China. French presidents have always been their nation’s “salesman in chief.” Trump is the first American president to play that role for us, and with $18 trillion in new investment in the US in just ten months, he has way outclassed the French. The really big news about China, however, was a virtually unreported investigation by the Kyiv Independent that revealed a secret arms pipeline between Russia and China. Since the very beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Chinese began sending top-level military officials to Russia, mostly in secret, to negotiate new contracts for advanced Russian armaments and to fund Russian arms manufacturers. The Kyiv Independent based its revelations on a large leak of Russian defense industry documents obtained by the Black Moon hactivist group earlier this year, supplemented by Russian customs and flight records, court documents, and facial recognition software that allowed them to identify the visiting Chinese officials. That China would want to buy Russian military technology suggests to me that the Chinese claims of developing fifth generation stealth fighters and other advanced AI-assisted systems are overblown. But it also reveals China’s strategic partnership with Russia and their support for Russia’s war with Ukraine. The Chinese want that war to go on forever. The reason is simple: as long as the US and Europe are focussed on Ukraine, they have less bandwidth to deal with China’s military buildup and its threats to Taiwan. And for China, that is the real prize. I discuss all of this, as well as the Democrat and media phony outrage over the Veneuzuela coke boat strikes, and the president’s just released National Security Strategy, on this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend. As always, you can listen live at 1 PM on Saturday on 104.9 FM or 550 AM in the Jacksonville, Florida area, or by using the Jacksonville Way Radio app. If you miss us live, you can catch the podcast here. Yours in freedom, Ken PS: Don’t miss this week’s show. It’s a packed episode. |
| Ken Timmerman’s 14th book of non-fiction, THE IRAN HOUSE: Tales of Revolution, Persecution, War, and Intrigue, can be ordered by clicking here or by viewing my author’s page, here. Raising Olives in Provence, can be ordered by clicking here. – Senior Fellow, America First Policy Institute (current) – Republican nominee for Congress, Maryland District 8 (2012) – President & CEO, Foundation for Democracy in Iran, www.iran.org – Nobel Peace Prize nominee, 2006 Cell: 904-817-8584 NEW NUMBER Follow me on Twitter @kentimmerman Facebook: ken timmerman New personal email: [email protected] Website: kentimmerman.com |
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The views expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Citizens Journal Florida.
