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Murder Rates Plummet to Lowest Ever as Deportations Rise, Dems Make Weak Anti-suppressor Arguments, CATO’s Embarrassingly Bogus Claims on Low Crime Rate by Illegals, and More

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Opinion

By Dr. John R. Lott, Jr. PhD

6/28/25

Over the past two weeks, I published several op-eds. In The Federalist, I argued that “As Deportations Rise, The U.S. Is On Track For The Lowest Murder Rate On Record.” While FBI director Kash Patel attributed the drop in murders to “letting cops be cops”—by relocating FBI agents out of Washington, D.C., and rolling back the Biden administration’s DEI mandates on law enforcement—I suggested another key factor: the Trump administration’s deportation of criminal illegal immigrants. Deporting these individuals not only removes criminals from communities, but also sends a message. Those who haven’t been caught are more likely to lay low to avoid arrest and deportation. I appeared on Steve Bannon’s WarRoom as well as Lars Larson’s national radio show to discuss this op-ed.
In another piece for Real Clear Policy, I exposed the weak arguments Democrats used to oppose changes to suppressor regulations in the budget reconciliation bill. They claim that suppressors (which they misleadingly call “silencers”) would increase casualties in mass public shootings, that no law-abiding citizen has legitimate reasons to own one, and that suppressors fully silence firearms—claims that data and basic acoustics easily refute.

For the Washington Times, I wrote on how illegal aliens contribute to crime, responding to extremely flawed claims by the CATO Institute. CATO argues that illegal aliens commit crimes at lower rates than native-born Americans, but they base this claim on the American Community Survey—data that systematically undercounts illegal aliens and skews their conclusions. A number of interviews discussed the high rate of illegals committing crime, including Bill Cunningham’s national radio showVicki McKenna’s Show covering Wisconsin, and Dallas’ KSKY.

I recently discussed my article on the Biden administration’s push for DEI-based hiring and promotions in police and fire departments on Real America’s Voice with Grant Stinchfield and Connecticut’s WJJF-FM. I also joined Philadelphia’s WPHT and Armed American Radio to break down our analysis of the Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling in the Mexico’s lawsuit against Smith & Wesson. While the Court struck down the case, I explained how it left a major loophole open for similar future lawsuits.
Several other stories made headlines this week. In Michigan, two volunteer church members stopped what could have been a mass public shooting. The media continues to mislabel them as “security guards,” though they were just regular congregants carrying firearms as part of a volunteer security detail. One of them put it plainly: “You are your own first responder.” The percent of the adult Jewish population able to carry guns in public has increased from about 2.7% on October 7th, 2023 to 7.72% today. It is too bad some Israelis weren’t carrying at the concert on October 7th.

Meanwhile, reports have emerged that during the 2020 election, China created fake driver’s licenses and printed mail-in ballots for non-citizen Chinese nationals in the U.S. to boost Biden’s chances in swing states. Although the FBI found 20,000 fake IDs, Director Christopher Wray allegedly ordered other government agencies to destroy the files tied to the incident.

Given that the Senate parliamentarian ruled that the Hearing Protection Act and the SHORT Act didn’t pass the Senate’s Byrd Rule for the budget reconciliation bill, here is an explanation for why they should meet that standard.

Next week, I’ll travel to Brazil and Argentina for nearly two weeks to give a series of talks—but I’ll keep preparing and sharing content in the meantime.

Yesterday, I drove to Scottsdale, Arizona to give a talk.
Our research has garnered attention in a couple of articles in The New York Sun, as well as in the National Police AssociationInstapundit, and other outlets.

We have updated our list of defensive gun uses by people legally carrying concealed handguns for January 2025.

If you haven’t already seen it, please watch our new video with John Stossel, which covers our new research showing errors in the FBI’s active shooting reports.

For those who haven’t already done so, if you would like to help us get the information out to others, please consider posting reviews of our website on the Google business page that we have set up. The more reviews people post, the more Google will feature our webpage in their searches. Thank you.

We need help getting our research out. It doesn’t do us any good to do all this work if people don’t see it. If you have friends you think might find our emails interesting, please encourage them to sign up by sending them the link here. Thank you very much.

We need your support to continue doing the work that we do. I don’t think that there is any organization with as small of a budget that regularly produces as much as we do. Thank you very much.

Research

CATO Again Pushes False Claim that Illegal Aliens Commit Crime at a Low Rate Based on Survey Data that Ignores that Many Criminal Illegals Never Serve Time in US Prisons or Serve Shortened Sentences and It Requires Illegals Self Identify as Illegal

Democrat Senator Chris Murphy falsely claims that Suppressors make Mass Public Shootings more deadly and make it so “no one will be able to hear the gun shots”

Our Survey Shows Why the Recent Public Health Survey Claiming 18 million American Adults Present at Mass Shootings is So Ridiculous. Number Shot Given by the Survey is Off by at least 71 Times!

JAMA Pediatrics Publishes Extremely Flawed Studied Titled: “Firearm Laws and Pediatric Mortality in the US”.

Op-eds

At The Federalist: As Deportations Rise, The U.S. Is On Track For The Lowest Murder Rate On Record

At Real Clear Policy: Anti-Gun Advocates Suppressing the Facts

At the Washington Times: Illegal immigrant crime rates higher than Cato Institute wants you to believe.

Recent Talks

Talk: Gun Control Myths

Political Biases in the FBI’s Crime Data

Dr. Lott participates in Press Briefing with Hundreds of Reporters on the Border Crisis and Crime

Dr. Lott participates in Press Briefing with Over 30 Reporters on How Crime is Increasing and Law Enforcement is Collapsing

Did Crime Decline under Biden?: Talk at G.O.A.L.S. 2024 in Knoxville, TN

Television interviews

On Real America’s Voice’s WarRoom: Why is the murder rate headed to the lowest it has ever been?

On Stinchfield Tonight on Real America’s Voice: Discussing the Impact of DEI Hiring Rules on Police Departments

Frank Miniter interviews Lott on the ATF and Second Trump Administration.

Radio interviews/Podcasts

On the Lars Larson National Show: Why is the murder rate headed to the lowest rate ever?

On The Vicki McKenna Show: The Low Rate that Total Crimes have Resulted in Arrests in Wisconsin

On Sunday Nights with Bill Cunningham: Illegal Aliens’ High Crime Rate and Our Research on Active Shootings

On Dallas’ KSKY: Crime Rates of Illegal Migrants Underreported

On Connecticut’s WJJF-FM: The Impact of DEI on the Effectiveness of Police and Fire Departments

On Philadelphia’s Big WPHT: Discussing the Supreme Court’s decision regarding Mexico’s Lawsuit Against Smith & Wesson

On Armed American Radio: Discussing The Supreme Court’s Decision in Mexico’s Lawsuit Against Smith & Wesson

On Granite State Live to Discuss Active Shootings and Mass Public Shootings.

Media Coverage

CPRC in the News: New York Sun (2), National Police Association, American Free Press, Ammoland (2), and much more

At American Liberty: Dem Senator Sparks Outrage With Wild Claim About Gun Suppressors.

Amicus Brief

Amicus Brief for the Supreme Court, Petition for Writ of Certiorari in Antonyuk, et al v James, that deals with Gun Free Zones in New York.

Televisions Show Bias on Guns

More Television Crime Show Bias: Mobsters Using Machine Guns in London and Antwerp, Belgium.

Defensive Gun Uses

Defensive Gun Uses By People Legally Carrying Guns: 31 Cases During January 2025.

Other Testimony

Dr. Lott’s testimony Before the Wyoming state Senate Judiciary Committee on eliminating Gun-free Zones

Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary on Gun Control.

Other

Did China mass-produce fake U.S. driver’s licenses to hijack the 2020 election? Why did the FBI end the investigation?

At Least Two Volunteer Church Members Shot An Active Shooter and Stopped the Attack at Sunday Church Service. “You are your own first responder”

Israel See Large Increase in the Number of People Who Can Legally Carry Guns, 7.72% of Jewish Adults can now Carry

Is the National Firearms Act of 1934 a Tax?: Understanding Why the Hearing Protection Act and the SHORT Act Measures in the Budget Reconciliation Bill Should be able to Pass the Senate’s Byrd Rule

Dr. John Lott Speaking in Sao Paulo, Brazil on July 5th, from the 7th to the 14th of July He will be Giving Talks in Argentina

Crime Prevention Research Center358 S 700 E, Ste B, B409, Salt Lake City, UT 84102
http://crimeresearch.org
[email protected]
(484) 802-5373


Crime Prevention Research Center · 358 S 700 E Ste B, B409, Salt Lake City, UT 84102, United States

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