Timmerman: Israel’s Counter-Strike on Iran

Opinion

Ken Timmerman’s Threat Watch, www.kentimmerman.com, 4-19-24

There’s lots we don’t know about Israel’s counter-strike on Iran that took place late Thursday night. We are told by unnamed Israeli officials that Israel hit a military base near Isfahan, most likely with drones. Some say it was an air defense radar site near a major nuclear facility.

Internal Iranian messaging was full of chest-thumping after the April 14 failed strike on Israel, showing footage of wildfires in Texas claiming they were the result of Iranian missile strikes on Israel. Thundering silence, though, the morning after the Israeli counter-strike.

Iran claimed to have shot down three Israeli drones, but are not making a big deal of the attack. That leads me to suspect that the Israelis did more damage than the Iranians are letting on.

Jonathan Conricus, who recently completed his reserve duty in Israel as an IDF spokesman, provided many more details of the Israeli counter-strike on the Morning Briefing with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies on Friday.

Israel used “a fraction” of the ordnance Iran used in its April 14 attack on Israel, and inflicted far greater damage. The fact that Israel struck at targets in Isfahan close to a major nuclear facility was meant to sent a message to Iran. “The message was, we can strike anywhere,” he said.

Isfahan is located hundreds of miles from the border. Remember that not a single iranian drone or cruise missile reached Israeli territory. But on Thursday night, it would appear that many Israeli drones or cruise missiles penetrated Iranian airspace and hit their targets.

Another casualty, apparently, were the Russian-built S-300 air defense radar units guarding the Isfahan nuclear facility. That, too, is a big deal. 

My good friend Brigadier General Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the analysis division of Israeli military intelligence, believes the Israeli message was, “we don’t want escalation. This message of deescalation is very important. It allows us to keep the Americans satisfied.” So Israel is moderating its response to the first-ever rocket, missile, and drone attack directly from Iran to keep the Biden White House happy.

For Israel, deterrence is a matter of applying the proper measure of violence in order to save lives. For White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan, these attacks seem to be real live video games. It’s time for grown ups in the White House.

I discuss the logic of deterrence in the Middle East, and a belated Biden administration effort to revive the Saudi-Israel peace talks, on this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend with Rick DeYoung. (Many of you probably recall that these talks were well advanced when President Trump left office and were scuttled by Biden during his first weeks in the White House.)

We also discuss the arrest by the Poles of a suspected Russian intelligence asset, seeking information to support an assassination plot against Zelenskyy, and more.

As always, you can join us live at 1 PM on Saturday on 104.9FM or 550 AM in the Jacksonville, Fl, area, or later by watching the podcast.

Yours in freedom,

Ken

The views expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Citizens Journal Florida.