Opinion
By Jeff Childers
July 16,2025
Good morning, C&C, it’s Wednesday! Today’s the very last post before the Childers family hauls its over-stuffed suitcases to curbside check-in, and then our traveling C&C season begins. Hang on tight. Today’s terrific roundup includes: TACO gets a new definition as Trump ropes more Russiahawk dopes with new threats — but are they? Nobody knows; administration’s rhetoric coupled with quiet State Department actions that tell a whole different story; new C&C Army orders that you’ll love trail a terrific bill filed by Thomas Massie to vaccinate the scourge called the PREP Act; Schiff has mortage problems and corporate media circles the wagons around the pop-eyed Senator; and another massive Trump move as DOJ pulls the plug on criminal investigations into election betting sites.
🌍 WORLD NEWS AND COMMENTARY 🌍
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Yesterday, CNN ably illustrated Trump’s brilliant and effective strategy of organized chaos, in a telling article headlined, “Analysis: Russia hawks face new dilemma over Trump’s 50-day Putin deadline.”
Moving targets are hardest to hit. Last week, as the neocon hawks ramped up pressure, painting President Trump as “weak on Ukraine,” he pivoted again. Trump publicly criticized Putin, saying he was out of patience with the Russian president. That’s it, Trump said, and announced that, if V. Putin does not concede to a ceasefire within 50 days, then Russia will receive dreaded 100% tariffs.
And, Trump said, we’ll sell all the weapons we could spare to NATO, to forward on the annoying green-sweatshirted gnome, who’d just extended his long-expired presidency again by signing another new martial law order* in Kyiv (* a rare but exciting new form of democracy without elections).
In classic understatement, CNN started its story saying, “The Russia hawks’ initial reaction to President Donald Trump’s tougher stance on Vladimir Putin was positive.” Warmongering Senators Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Ct.) were more ebullient, celebrating the move as “a real executive hammer to drive the parties to the negotiating table.”
Actually, global necons experienced a rush of adrenaline followed by a sensation best described as rapturous ecstasy. They could hardly speak from the joy of the moment. Finally! Haha, Russia, they crowed, dancing awkwardly with each other, high-fiving, pointing and laughing. Putin, you’re in for it now!
But we who remain skeptical about Project Ukraine experienced bemusement. 100% tariffs? On what? Russia’s already been sanctioned to Siberia and back. They can’t even use SWIFT. U.S. firms can’t legally do business with them. The supposed “tariff” would apply to what, exactly? Schrödinger’s shipment? As for other countries still trading with Moscow, it’s hard to imagine Trump would slap 100% tariffs on the Chinese; he’s already got a “deal” with them. Is he supposed to punish our ally India, while also not tariffing China?
As far as selling weapons to NATO for Ukraine’s use, well, let’s see. Trump qualified his promise with the phrase weapons we can spare. That tickled my lawyer’s ears, which are always on high-alert for the odd sneaky adverb, adjective, or subjunctive clause. After all, SecDef Pete Hegseth has already said we can’t spare any more. So … which weapons? And how much is NATO prepared to pay? Time will tell.
Plus, the European Union —NATO’s headquarters— buys tons of gas from Russia. Will they experience bone-crushing tariffs as well? How is this all supposed to work?
Unsurprisingly, then, Moscow was not humbled. Like the rest of us, the Russians seemed bemused. “The Russians,” CNN reported, “have basically shrugged it off and even treated it as a green light to take what they can in the next several weeks.” Tak i byt.
Which leads to the “news,” if you can call it that. Hang on a minute, the neocons are now starting to say, dropping their party poppers from nerveless fingers. “A day later,” CNN reported, “a real sense of skepticism about Trump’s threats has crept in.”
Uh oh. The party’s already over. They smell a rat.
The point is, nobody knows what it all means. Not even Putin. Trump’s brilliant tariffs maelstrom, with its seemingly random adjustments and repeated extensions, left everyone guessing and the media coining new, sneery acronyms (“TACO”). But on the other hand, Trump also told the Iranians “two more weeks”— but then blew up their massive underground nuclear bunkers the very next day.
So … are the “Russia sanctions” —whatever that means— a case of TACO? Or an “executive hammer?” CNN now has rhetorical questions: “Why the delay? Why not pass the sanctions legislation that more than 80 senators already support today?”
By issuing his new 50-day threat, Trump defanged his neocon critics, who were just about to send him an awkward Russia “sanctions bazooka” bill. It’s a recognizable pattern: Trump’s leverage-by-chaos doctrine. You might call it TACO—Trump’s Artful Chaos Offensive. The media interprets each lurch, deadline, and reversal as inexplicable incoherence or sloppy improvisation. But step back just a tiny bit, and a consistent strategy emerges: Trump destabilizes expectations, then harvests concessions from confused adversaries and off-balance institutions.
Trump’s strategy evokes two iconic survival styles: Dune’s Fremen sandwalk and the ancient Chinese martial arts style Drunken Fist. Like the Fremen zigzagging across Arrakis to avoid sandworms, Trump moves with arrhythmic unpredictability to avoid triggering the entrenched predators of the deep state. And like the drunken kung fu master, he wobbles and weaves —deliberately off-balance, inviting underestimation— until he strikes with unexpected force.
The media sees chaos; adversaries see vulnerability; but what they’re really witnessing is Trump’s tactical sway— a calculated rhythm of misdirection, disruption, and leverage. TACO isn’t confusion. It’s camouflage.
And … the price of gas fell further. You’re welcome.
But wait. There’s more.
🚀 Late yesterday, the New York Times dropped this bombshell of a headline:
“Among the roughly 1,350 workers laid off at the State Department last week were senior analysts who specialize in Russia and Ukraine,” the Times grumbled.
In other words, just as Trump threatens tariffs and promises arms to NATO, Secretary of State Rubio axes dozens of senior analysts from the State Department’s intelligence wing— specifically including ones focused on Russia and Ukraine. Critics wailed about the loss of “institutional knowledge.”
In other words, the deep state isn’t being ordered to enforce Trump’s policy— it’s being dismantled so it can’t resist. You can’t resist very much while you’re uploading your resume to Monster.com.
Former State Department official Ellen McCarthy blurted (on LinkedIn), “This isn’t just about jobs, it’s about weakening a critical capability at exactly the wrong time.” And they are gone gone. “Few if any of the employees who have lost their jobs,” the Times said, “will have an opportunity to apply for other jobs within the State Department.”
In a House hearing yesterday, Representative Bill Keating (D-Ma.) angrily demanded, “Why did you fire the entire team investigating war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine?” Efficiency was the curt reply.
On the surface, the timing appears strange, chaotic, and disorganized. On the one hand, Trump threatened Russia with 100% tariffs and “unlimited” arms shipments. Simultaneously, Rubio shut down or merged key State Department offices responsible for analyzing Russia and Ukraine—including the dreaded war crimes unit.
To believe this is just chaotic coincidence is to believe Trump, Rubio, and their teams accidentally cut the knees out from under the very same analysts who would be tasked with justifying any Russia escalations, monitoring compliance, or building a case for further sanctions. It’s possible. But unlikely.
Even more thought-provoking is what the layoffs signal to Moscow. The Kremlin employs entire directorates to monitor U.S. bureaucratic activity, personnel changes, and institutional signaling. When the U.S. lays off its top Russia/Ukraine analysts and shutters the war crimes office —the very people responsible for tracking Putin’s atrocities and advising escalation policy— that’s not just random noise to the Russians. That’s a message.
A clear message of de-escalation.
As every seasoned bureaucratic knife-fighter knows, personnel is policy. You don’t need to rescind a program if you can just fire the people running it (see, e.g., Dept. of Education, USAID, Institute for Peace, etc.). You don’t need to declare peace if you dismantle the war team. In gutting the State Department’s Russia and Ukraine desks —especially its war crimes unit— Trump and Rubio didn’t just change policy. They changed the battlefield. No analysts means no briefs. No briefs, no sanctions. No sanctions, no war.
It’s textbook TACO. Create a blinding fog of rhetorical escalation while quietly disassembling the scaffolding of war. Confuse the media. Scatter the hawks. Send the real message through pink slips.
And the clueless corporate media still hasn’t connected these dots.
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Prepare for new orders. I couldn’t find a single article reporting this outstanding news. We don’t hate the corporate media nearly enough. But yesterday, Representative Thomas Massie filed a short and sweet bill to repeal the PREP Act. It is exactly what the government needs to start rebuilding trust.
As regular readers are well aware, I am currently suing the federal government over the PREP Act, in Moms for America v. HHS (Northern District of Florida). So I know a little bit about it.
The PREP Act is a 2005 law, quietly passed in the wake of the Anthrax panic, and it provides the legal liability immunity to vaccine makers (and others) for any of their products used during a declared “pandemic.” Injured, disabled, or killed citizens cannot sue vaccine makers even if the vendors lied, but instead may only submit ‘claims’ to a useless and hyper-stingy black box called the “Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program” (CICP).
From what I’ve seen, you’d have better chances by mailing your claim to Wuhan, or stuffing it in Walmart’s suggestions box.
Nothing about PREP makes sense. If a product is “safe and effective,” then why does a manufacturer even need liability immunity? And if it’s not “safe and effective,” what right does the government have to mandate it in a free society?
It’s not exactly a recipe for trust. What national security objective is achieved by forcing citizens to take untested products, eroding trust in all our institutions and making us all outraged at our own government? Our enemies are taking victory laps.
Massie’s bill, which in a sane world should quickly pass and be signed into law (but of course, we’re not in a sane world), said it all in its short preamble:
(1) Liability shields granted under the PREP Act have undermined public trust and accountability during public health emergencies.
(2) The ability of citizens to seek redress for injury or harm is a fundamental principle of justice and due process. (Exactly what my lawsuit argues.)
(3) The PREP Act has enabled regulatory capture and legal immunity for pharmaceutical manufacturers at the expense of individual rights.
This might be the single most important bill since the Declaration of Independence was signed.
💉 So far, Massie is standing alone (again) doing the unpleasant legislative work while others rack up clicks about Ukraine. If they are serious about health freedom, now’s the time to prove it. We don’t need any more soundbites. We need real accountability— and that starts with repealing the law that lets drug companies maim and kill with impunity, then walk away protected by statute.
Here’s the new operation: Mr. Massie needs some co-sponsors. Send your Representative and Senator a quick note of encouragement, if you feel agree. There are two ways, calling (best) or emailing.
☎️ Use House.gov to quickly find your representative’s phone number (put in your zip code at the top of the page). Here’s the script, but feel free to improvise:
Hi, my name is [Your Name], and I’m a constituent from [City or ZIP]. I’m calling to urge Representative [Last Name] to co-sponsor Rep. Thomas Massie’s bill to repeal the PREP Act, HR 4388.
The PREP Act gives total legal immunity to pharmaceutical companies, even when people are harmed. That’s not acceptable. We need real accountability to rebuild public trust.
Please let the Representative know this is an important issue to me and others in our district.
Thank you.
📤 If you prefer, use Democracy.io to quickly send emails to your own representatives based on your address. Or do both! Here’s a handy email script:
Subject: Please Co-Sponsor Rep. Massie’s Bill to Repeal the PREP Act
I’m writing as your constituent to respectfully urge you to co-sponsor Rep. Thomas Massie’s bill to repeal the PREP Act, HR 4388.
The PREP Act grants pharmaceutical companies total immunity—even in cases of fraud or injury—while severely limiting recourse through the CICP. That’s not justice, and it’s certainly not freedom.
If the government truly wants to rebuild public trust in medical policy, accountability must return. HR 4388 accomplishes that by removing blanket immunity and restoring citizens’ ability to seek redress.
Please stand with your constituents—not the pharmaceutical lobby—and co-sponsor this essential legislation.
Thank you,
[Your Name], [Your ZIP Code]
If you joined in the fun, let everyone know in the comments. (And let us know if you remember our victorious 5-a-day calling army.)
Plus, actually repealing PREP would make my job as a lawyer much easier. Just saying.
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The LA Times ran a wonderful story, in classic corporate media style, headlined “Trump accuses Schiff of mortgage fraud, which Schiff calls false ‘political retaliation.’” Unlike tens of thousands of Trump ‘crimes’ stories, the LA Times included Schiff’s rebuttal right in the headline.
Bug-eyed Senator Adam Schiff’s alleged crime is pretty simple. He claimed his DC-area home as his “primary homestead” to get a lower interest rate on his government-backed mortgage, though by law, he must live in his California district. The real news wasn’t that “Trump claimed” anything; the big story was Fannie Mae officials have now determined probable cause to beleive that Schiff broke the law. The only question is what happens next.
Specifically, FNMA investigators concluded Schiff and his wife “engaged in a sustained pattern of possible occupancy misrepresentation” on their government-subsidized home loans between 2009 and 2020. In fairness, the memo reviewed by Reuters didn’t make any final connection by identifying a specific crime, but that’s not FNMA’s job. That’s for DOJ.
“As much as Trump may hope, this smear will not distract from his Epstein files problem,” Schiff shot back. Epstein again. Suddenly, they love the Jeffrey Epstein story. Dopes.
It’s not clear how Biden’s global pardon, which the Autopen scribbled during the twilight hours of President Cabbage’s time in office, would affect possible mortgage fraud charges against Schiff. If nonspecific global pardons of everything do work, I sure would like one. (Just in case; you never know.) Where can I apply? The Autopen might be very busy soon.
Assuming DOJ pushes forward, Schiff must pay for his own defense lawyers.
For your media analysis, the article continued by reciting a long, one-sided litany of Schiff’s pathetic defenses (e.g., he just wanted to be close to his kids) and his acrimonious history with President Trump (revenge!). Notably, the LA Times did not quote a single legal expert. Nor did it quote anyone (except Trump) who thought the DOJ should move ahead.
Who else thinks that you or I would be in big trouble if we pulled this stunt, and Senators shouldn’t get any special treatment?
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Finally, in more good news, yesterday CNN ran a terrific story headlined, “Trump administration ends Polymarket investigations without charges.” Portlanders: Polymarket is a betting platform, not a new, open-minded orgy platform. Just to be clear.
Polymarket is like Wall Street meets Vegas meets Reddit on the blockchain. It’s a decentralized prediction platform where users bet real crypto on real-world outcomes: elections, indictments, rate hikes, alien disclosure, you name it. If it can be phrased as a yes-or-no question, Polymarket will let the internet put money on it. It’s part bookie, part barometer, and part public polygraph—a financial truth engine that turns elite narratives into tradable odds.
For example, bettors currently predict that Google will have the “best” AI by the end of the month (94%). But they only find a sorrowful 7% chance that “Epstein foul play will be confirmed in 2025.” Another one lets you bet on how many times Elon Musk will tweet between July 11th and 18th. Good luck.
Polymarket played a headline-grabbing role in the 2024 election, particularly during the Democratic primary crisis. As legacy media and major pollsters insisted Vice President Kamala Harris remained the frontrunner, Polymarket users weren’t buying it. Literally. Long before official forecasts began to shift, the platform’s odds reflected a steep and persistent collapse in confidence in Harris’s chances, especially in key swing states.
The tipping point came in late summer, when Polymarket’s crowd-priced contracts gave Harris less than a 10% chance of securing the election— even as CNN still had her leading the race. Media dismissed it as internet trolling or crypto noise. But in the end, the prediction proved eerily accurate: Harris was out, and the DNC was scrambled.
In reality, Polymarket’s crowdsourced “hive mind” outperformed the pundits and pollsters. It didn’t just reflect public sentiment— it correctly forecast it. That made it political and thus, intensely controversial.
But it also made Polymarket impossible to ignore.
The Biden administration’s retaliatory investigation into Polymarket was a textbook example of regulatory overreach cloaked in concern for “consumer protection.” In 2022, after Polymarket exploded in popularity —particularly for politically sensitive markets like Harris’s nomination odds and election fraud predictions— Biden’s CFTC swooped in, accusing the platform of operating unregistered event-based binary options. The company paid a $1.4 million fine and agreed to block U.S. users.
But that wasn’t enough. They say money flows like water, always finding the lowest point, and creative Polymarket bettors found ways around the new US restrictions. The platform resurfaced ahead of the 2024 elections.
In 2024, after it became painfully obvious that Polymarket bettors weren’t buying the official pro-Harris narrative, Biden’s weaponized DOJ joined the fray. Of course. FBI agents raided CEO Shayne Coplan’s New York apartment, seizing his devices in a grossly political shot across the bow. Despite no evidence of harm, fraud, or user complaints, the Biden administration treated the site as a national security threat —election interference!— because it allowed ordinary people to bet against elite narratives.
The investigation has dragged on for nearly a year, casting a chill over decentralized prediction markets.
Yesterday, two major Polymarket probes —one civil (CFTC), one criminal (DOJ)— were both unceremoniously dropped. No charges. No settlement. Just poof. This came after FBI agents spent nearly a year sniffing around the site’s U.S. userbase and “unregistered prediction markets.”
Earlier this year, Trump’s CFTC also dropped its appeal against another betting site, KalshiEx, clearing the way for legal betting on U.S. elections— something that used to make blue-check journalists convulse on contact. And now Polymarket walks away clean, even after allegedly “violating” the terms of its prior $1.4M settlement with Biden-era regulators.
CEO Coplan tweeted, “This admin’s commitment to collaboration with American innovators is revitalizing the American dream.”
It’s more than just vindication for Polymarket. It’s liberation. Information warfare has flowed downstream to the public. Sites like Polymarket allow ordinary people to bet real money on real-world outcomes, including elections, interest rates, war, inflation, trials, tariffs, and even alien disclosure. And nothing destroys elite narrative control faster than an unmanipulable, permissionless market that exposes official lies in real-time.
This could turn the grotesque polling industry inside out. Polymarket and its kin don’t just compete with the polling industry; they threaten to obsolete it. While polls rely on outdated phone surveys, small samples, statistical manipulation, and partisan question framing, betting markets are superior in every way. They tap the collective intelligence of thousands of people with real skin in the game in real time. They don’t ask what anyone says will happen— they watch what we’re willing to bet our money on.
Crowds produce vastly better results than polls. In 2024, the crowd accurately predicted Kamala Harris’s downfall long before the pollsters ever admitted she was even in trouble.
If they make this category, I’ll bet it’s the end of the long-running polling scam. Goodbye, pollster manipulators. We won’t miss you.
Have a terrific Wednesday! Vote for C&C by tuning in again tomorrow morning, when we will all discover together what the traveling roundup looks like. Sometimes, those quickly drafted submissions can be the most brutally honest. See you then.
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The views expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Citizens Journal Florida
